Greek Election Opinion Polls

Here is an attempt to collect and digitise all the opinion poll results, as presented in national media, for the forthcoming election on September 20th 2015.

42 Academics on whether Greece should default

Chicago Booth's IGM Forum asked 42 academic experts whether Greece would be better off defaulting on its debt.

On the streets of Athens with Golden Dawn - a documentary by Kostas Georgousis

 

A documentary by Kostas Georgousis regarding the contemporary threat of neonazism in Greece.




Immunity and corruption–Part 2

I REPOST THE ARTICLE BY Vasiliki Skreta (New York University) ORIGINALLY POSTED HERE

This is a follow-up on a previous post, which examines the link between politicians’ immunity and corruption. Both posts are based on a new academic study by Karthik Reddy, Moritz Schularick, and Vasiliki Skreta, which provides original and systematic evidence that democracies whose politicians enjoy stronger immunity protection do suffer from more corruption and poorer overall governance. This post summarizes the findings of this study. The summary here.

STABLE LINK OF ORIGINAL: http://greekeconomistsforreform.com/justice/immunity-and-corruption-part-2/

Regarding immunity and corruption – Part 1

I REPOST THE ARTICLE BY Vasiliki Skreta (New York University) ORIGINALLY POSTED HERE

In the wake of the financial crisis and the numerous instances of public malfeasance it revealed, a growing number of commentators have argued for the abolition of the privilege of immunity from prosecution enjoyed by Greek politicians. A new academic study by Karthik Reddy, Moritz Schularick, and Vasiliki Skreta provides original and systematic evidence that democracies whose politicians enjoy stronger immunity protection do, indeed, suffer from more corruption and poorer overall governance. The study’s findings are particularly important at a time when many countries in the world teeter on the brink of economic collapse because their public finances were badly mismanaged. Likewise, movements such as the Arab Spring, the Indignados, and Occupy Wall Street reveal the strong desire of younger generations, who suffer the most from unemployment and lack of opportunity, for greater transparency and accountability in government. The evidence in the study suggests that the legal institution of immunity should be re-examined in established democracies.

The best coverage of the Greek crisis I have seen so far

Recently I viewed a one hour documentary byBB3 regarding the Greek economic crisis and its effect on various social and economic groups. I believe it is trully worth watching and I would like to share it.

Stable Link for "Coming Here Soon: Greece, Bust, and Broken" - http://www.bbc.co.uk/i/b01kbz15/

 

For NON-UK residents the documentary is available in 4 parts via youtube:

Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4

What is the effect of austerity policies on Greek universities?

A very interesting and detailed read posted on the education activist network by the Professor of Physics and Epistemology at the University of Athens, Kostas Skordoulis.

Greek Election Outcomes

http://soberlook.com/2012/06/greek-elections-decision-tree.html

Here is why Greece won't exit the Euro

The link is from the Efxnews.com

The most realistic predictions on what follows in the Greek debt story

I reproduce from Economistmeg.com an article written by Megan Greene on what follows in the story of the Greek debt crisis.

German proposal for Greece’s compliance: accelerating eurozone exit

JANUARY 28, 2012

At the top of my list of to do’s for the past few weeks has been to update the post on Greek PSI that I wrote just before Christmas to include some more recent developments, such as the prospect of ECB participation. Last night, Peter Spiegel from the Financial Times (@SpiegelPeter) published the German government’s proposalfor Greece’s “improvement of compliance” with the terms of the bailout, and all of a sudden Greek PSI positively pales in comparison. According to Germany’s proposal, whatever the result of the PSI deal, Greece will need to “legally commit itself to giving absolute priority to future debt service” and “accept shifting budgetary sovereignty to the European level”. If the Greek government is not willing to do this, the troika would presumably turn off the taps of bailout money and Greece would default. With no access to market or official financing, Greece would be forced to exit the eurozone.

Το κόστος της Δημοκρατίας

Αναδημοσιεύω από το madata.gr

-----------------------------------------------------

Ο Σύλλογος ΕΛΛΗΝΕΣ ΦΟΡΟΛΟΓΟΥΜΕΝΟΙ, κατά το διάστημα του Δεκεμβρίου 2011 και του Ιανουαρίου 2012, πραγματοποίησε μιν ειδική μελέτη, η οποία βασίστηκε στην ανάλυση της νομοθεσίας κάθε χώρας, αλλά και στις αξιολογήσεις κάθε χώρας από τα όργανα του Συμβουλίου της Ευρώπης, και εξετάζει τα συστήματα και τις πρακτικές χρηματοδότησης των πολιτικών κομμάτων στις χώρες της Ευρωπαϊκής Ένωσης.

Τη μελέτη αυτή, την εξέδωσε σήμερα σε μορφή βιβλίου, με τίτλο:
ΤΟ ΚΟΣΤΟΣ ΤΗΣ ΔΗΜΟΚΡΑΤΙΑΣ - Μέρος 1ο: Η Χρηματοδότηση των Πολιτικών Κομμάτων.

Ένα (πολύ) μικρό ιστορικό παράδειγμα προς αποφυγή

Ιστορικός δεν είμαι. Απλά λατρεύω την μοντέρνα ιστορία. Συχνά πυκνά ανατρέχω σε κεφάλαια βιβλίων που έχω διαβάσει παλιότερα για να διατηρώ τη μνήμη μου και την ιστορική μου επιχειρηματολογία σε ικανοποιητικά επίπεδα. Έτσι λοιπόν έκανα και σήμερα...

μ'ένα από τα αγαπημένα μου βιβλία (ιστορίας και μη) του Βασίλη Ραφαηλίδη, "Η κωμικοτραγική ιστορία του Νεοελληνικού Κράτους" εκδ. Εικοστού Πρώτου.(1)

Πέφτω πάνω στα κεφάλαια που αφιερώνονται στον Ελληνικό εμφύλιο και τα γεγονότα που τον περιβάλουν. Χαρακτηριστικά διαβάζω:

Why the Greek rescue plan is condemned to a failure

Given the opportunity derived from the article posted by Mr. Provopoulos, Governor of the Bank of Greece to Financial Times this evening, i had the wish to reply.

My prediction is that the near future will reveal that the  views expressed by the governor of the Bank of Greece are unrealistic. Primarily for two simple reasons that are not at all discussed by Mr. Provopoulos.

First, the Government that is implementing the reforms, for a respectable proportion of the Greek public, is perceived as non-legitimate, non-democratically elected and thus non-socially acceptable. Although they have an enormous parliamentarian majority, the ability to make an effective policy change and reform the economy primarily depends upon the perception of how legitimacy the government is. In the Greek current case perhaps the government lacks of that dynamic. Hence, any policy change that is proposed and enacted will fall into the umbrella of the authoritarian decision-making hence will gradually increase the existing tension which will in the end lead to social unrest (at a level that the past will seem idealistic and peaceful compared to what will occur)

Second reason why the government's attempt to reform and restructure the economy is condemned to a massive failure concerns the issue of the disbelief and uncertainty derived from both domestic entities and foreign institutions and officials on whether the Greek economy can be viable by remaining in the Eurozone. Foreign agents ranging from public officials in the EU, IMF and ECB tend to offer opinions and statements that contradict, thus leading to an increase of the economic uncertainty. That disbelief of the success of the Austerity programme that is currently applied together with alternative scenarios that indicate Greece will not remain in the euro for very long destroy any positive attempt (if such exists) towards the increase of investments and expansion of the economic participation of the private sector. Assuming that today a private agent in Greece or abroad is interested in investing in a project and possesses the required capital to do so, the climate of uncertainty for the currency drives her to a delay and continuous postponement of the investing process. This delay is extremely rational given the enormous devaluation that will occur to a hypothesized new currency. An investor who decides to invest today in that unstable Greek environment is willing to take massive risks due to the immediate losses that will incur from a change in the currency and the devaluation that will follow as a consequence. Thus the potential investor chooses rationally to delay until the environment settles (and there is a political and economic guarantee what the currency will be in the medium-run).

Due to these two reasons my projection and economic forecast differs completely from that of the Governor of the Bank of Greece. I tend to believe that the push for reform and economic restructure will continue to expand while the response on behalf of the society and the private agents will continue to be defensive and negative. As the indicators will be on deficit from the expected ones further pushing for reforms will be required, by a perceived as non-legitimate government which will lead gradually to the perception of an aggressive strategy by the government and the aggression at some point will destroy the remains of the social cohesion within the Greek public with severe and perhaps threatening consequences. The existing economic strategy is condemned to failure due to the public opposition.

Stable Link for the Original Article by Mr. Provopoulos: http://clippings.ft.com/listnavigator/mwgs/1781471

OECD Public Governance Review on Greece

The Greek PM most responsible for the debt? A graphic

Here is a very informative graphic depicting the Greek public debt against the time period of governance by each PM. Useful observations can be extracted.

 



 

Source: http://www.xrimanews.gr/agores/24608-poios-prwthypoyrgos-ths-xwras-dhmioyrghse-to-megalytero-xreos

 

Greek data in the year 2011 - When the opendata movement should laugh

On December 19th, 2011 the Greek Parliament and the "special committee for accountability" led by Mr. Evaggelos Argiris, uploaded the ownership reports of all the MPs and MEPs for the year 2009 (economic year 2010). Despite the time lag and the delay in the name of accountability and transparency the official site of the Greek Parliament accommodated for the first time in Greek history data that according to the voted plan could raise awareness on the financial status of the elected public figures, thus allowing civic control and accountability. The plan for publishing the data and making it publicly accessible was massively advertised as a way to enter the digital era of data with useful benefits for the society derived from the ability to hold the politicians accountable. However, the original plan is completely different from the mere reality.

Initially it is quiet interesting to note that the cost for developing and maintaining the Parliament's site according to the President's statement is a total of 1,059,516.27 Euro (proof 1, proof 2). A rational mind should expect that a site that has cost to the Greek tax payer a  respectable amount of money will be suitable to store a good sort of information while serving hundreds of users at the same time. This working hypothesis based upon the rationality that such an expensive site will be able to provide quality services to the users, seems to have been falsified.

When the ownership reports of the MPs and MEPs were uploaded the site went offline for most of the morning hours and was unable to serve the demand of many users who desired to hold access to the fresh information. (I managed to finally access the website at around 14.00 having refreshed it a hundred of times)

On top of the inability to respond to high demand adequately, the second surprise and disappointment that led to anger was caused by the format that the site engineers (?) chose for the information to be stored. Paradoxically all the reports were in Flash format. According to people who are aware of the internet customs, this is quiet unusual as today most of the textual information takes the form of html or at worst embedded pdf, types that are accessible by a wider audience and allow users to process the data more easily. (source) In contrast, the engineers of the site chose to provide the information in Flash that is actually a digital depiction of the printed document. This type is nonmanagable by spreadsheet or other data processing softwares.

Data analysts, citizens, journalists, academics will be unable to download the information, store it and potentially analyse it in order to produce useful results such as comparisons, trends etc.

Was the selection of the specific format just a random choice?

An answer to the intention (or randomness) can be given directly by the terms of use that anyone can view from the same page as the reports of the ownership statuses. I quote the translation of Paragraph No. 5:

"It is forbidden to copy, publish, or partially publish the electronic ownership reports. Access to the data is only allowed through the portal of the Hellenic Parliament and only by technical tools that have been used for that purpose"

I guess that most of the questions regarding whether the selection of the format was intentional or not can be answered by the legal framework that was set to cover the information. It is clear that the status quo desires the data of their ownership statuses to be fully protected and hence citizens to only get a limited and thus non-threatening taste of civic control and accountability. They have forbidden through the terms of use any partial reproduction, copying of the data so as in two, three years from now when the fresher data for the present year become available, citizens to be fully unable to compare and run statistical analyses on the changes and trends of the elected officials' ownership statuses.

Other Observations:

A) The stable link for the reports of ownership of the MPs and MEPs for the year 2010: http://www.hellenicparliament.gr/Organosi-kai-Leitourgia/epiropi-elegxou-ton-oikonomikon-ton-komaton-kai-ton-vouleftwn/Diloseis-Periousiakis-Katastasis-Oikonomikou-Etous-2010-Chrisi-2009/

B) The reports and the terms of use are not accessible in English or any other language. Hence only Greek speakers can read and check the data. (I remind you here the cost of the site).

C) Downloading and analysing the data is illegitimate according to the terms of use. However if you seek a practical resolution to the problem imposed by the Flash format you may read here.

D) An interesting comment (by Takis Bouyouris) I read about the format of the information and the limited web accessibility that constitutes a violation of European Legislation. (e.g people with limited visibility are unable to use the special softwares that read machine language and convert it into audible sound).

Further Reading:

Exceptional opinions on  the ownership reports that I have read (unfortunately only in Greek)

- Zaphod Galaxyarchis

- Georgakopoulos

- E-cannibals

A good insight on the latest Greek socio-political developments

I copy the article which has been retrieved from Globalpost.com and conducted by Ken Maguire

I think that the article is extremely objective in terms of the facts provision. I would add that the main source of insecurity for the people is derived by the government itself (both the elected ex government of Pasok and the current transition government) which do not hold any social legitimacy at all among the majority of Greeks. 

 

Where Greeks hide their savings

With safes and Swiss accounts, rich Greeks could stand to profit from the crisis.

Demonstrators burn an EU flag during a protest in Thessaloniki on November 17, 2011 against austerity measures demanded by the new unity government to persuade its creditors to release bankruptcy-saving loans. Greeks are draining local banks in favor of Swiss accounts, London property and cash stashed in home safes. (Sakis Mitrolidis/AFP/Getty Images)

A video from the recent events in Greece

The war in Athens, Greece from dimitris meletis on Vimeo.

In Greece, 'corruption pervades every corner of life' - by Jon Henley

I repost the newblog post by the Guardian

Original article stable link: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/oct/20/europe-breadline-corrution-pervades-corner

AT THE BOTTOM I INCLUDE MY COMMENT

Jon Henley is travelling through Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece to hear the human stories behind the European debt crisis. Here Leonidas Pitsoulis describes Greek corruption

Many Greeks have extremely low levels of personal debt – by western standards. Photograph: Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images

Leonidas Pitsoulis, 43, returned to Thessaloniki seven years ago after leaving at 18 to study and then teach in America and at the LSE in London. Coming back as an adult after leaving as a teenager was an eye-opener, he said.

Information on Greek Strikes and disruptions

Two sites attempt to summarize and offer up-to-date information on anyone interested in Greek disruptions and strikes. The latter tend to be quiet numerous after the sequence of austerity measures imposed by the Greek government. As a result, living in Greece, or even worse being a tourist while not possessing the information about public disruptions might lead to plan disruptions and other inconveniences.

Hence, the following two sources resolve the asymmetry of information by offering the exact details of the body (union, sector, etc) that will pursue action.

• Apergia (Strike): Written in Greek but may be translated in many languages by clicking on the button at the very top of the home page. The site is exceptionally informative as it summarizes all the details for each labour action to a weekly schedule which is coloured depending on the type of action. Pretty good!


• LivingInGreece: This site can be found entirely in english and other languages. It doesn't summarize various actions as the previous one, into a weekly schedule, however, it provides the most analytical and updated detail of the action plans. Due to the fact that labour action plans tend to be altered even at the last-minute I suggest checking this site for the last second changes so as not to be captured by surprise!

NOTE: By no means I don't believe that strike actions are negative for an economy (especially when a whole society is destroyed by the financial measures introduced by the government) and I think that massive awareness can be raised by attending (in a self protected and careful way) a demonstration in Greece.